Public transport: how is it changing?

In a few years the world as we know it will no longer exist! We do not want to predict the imminent arrival of some unexpected catastrophe, nor do we pretend to be able to predict in detail what will happen. However, what we can do, is to imagine what will be the most important changes in the coming years, starting from the innovations and trends of the present! In this article we will analyze some of the most important ongoing transformations, trying to imagine the effects they will have on public transport.

The starting point of this analysis, unfortunately, is the pandemic and the reason is quite obvious: it has imposed urgent and extraordinary measures, quickly and widely! In recent months, there have been changes that normally would have taken years to be accepted. Just think of smart working, distance learning or digitization of public administrations. These transformations have created a completely different context than the previous one. And it is precisely in this context that the public transport of the future takes shape, between innovations and unstoppable trends.

Here are the main ones:

1.  INCREASING DIGITAL CULTURE

Lockdowns have accelerated the process of spreading digital technologies among citizens. In these months more and more people have learned to master these tools and today they feel comfortable in using them.

2.  ATTENTION TO ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

The subject has now become part of the common thought. Public opinion is increasingly sensitive to environmental protection, while governments around the world (almost) are accelerating the long-awaited ecological transition process.

3.  DATE CENTRICITY

In the postmodern world, information and data have become one of the most important resources ever. If until a few years ago when we talked about "Big Data", "Open Data" and "Smart City" they seemed something evanescent and theoretical, today there are practical examples of how these models can revolutionize entire cities!

4.  ECONOMICS OF PLATFORMS

7 of the 10 largest companies in the world, have business models based on digital platforms!

The platform economy is experiencing unprecedented expansion and, above all, is undermining many of the traditional economic paradigms, bringing new business models and new ways of creating value to the fore. The sharing economy is far from dead!

5.  ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

By 2023, artificial intelligence will be an integral part of any economic sector. Its methods of use are many and often unpredictable! The only thing that is certain is that even in this case, its progress and its spread are unstoppable.

How does all this affect public transport?

Today, the average citizen understands the importance, usefulness and convenience of digital technologies. This means that traditional systems begin to "go tighter" and expect more and more from the network. All this applies to transport too! Before, to use a public bus, one would enter a tobacconist, buy a ticket and go to the nearest stop to wait for the arrival of the vehicle. Today the citizen expects at least to be able to book and pay online, but not only! Now that he has become familiar with the applications, he expects to be able to know the location of the vehicle in real time and maybe, why not, even the level of coverage of the same, so he can book his place in a less crowded time slot!

Access to information has become a determining factor and has a major influence on the citizen’s perception of the quality of the transport service. At the same time, collecting and processing information on the use of their services, allows transport companies to respond in an increasingly targeted and efficient way to the real needs of users. What does that mean in practice? Traditionally urban and extra-urban lines, bus stops and timetables, are updated on average every 6 months, at best based on seasonality. This system has enormous limitations:

1. Low flexibility of supply, which does not rely on data analysis, ignores on the one hand the specific needs of users and on the other the evolution of demand over time

2. Inefficiency and waste of resources (the most classic example are buses that travel almost empty at certain times)

3. Inability to respond in a timely manner to peak demand (such as large events)

The public transport of the future cannot do without data and digital platforms! Making strategic use of these technologies does not only mean improving the quality of the offer, but also and above all making it sustainable! Efficient public transport makes it possible to significantly reduce the use of private vehicles, decongesting urban traffic and saving tonnes of CO2! How do you convince as many citizens as possible to choose public transport? One of the most effective strategies is the so-called "gamification". What do we mean? Apply the logic behind the games to their social commitment; in this case it would mean to create some missions (eg. take the bus 5 days a week), providing a rewarding system for the most involved citizens! This system works very well not only as an incentive to use public transport, but also as an incentive to make their own contribution to the success of a mobility plan. How? A mission could consist in submitting to short surveys periodically, with the aim of bringing out any critical issues related to the service and to collect specific mobility needs. Remaining on the subject of sustainability, it is right to dwell on another major change: the progressive replacement of traditional vehicles with electric vehicles. Just to make the idea, think that only in Italy will be replaced about 60,000 buses! To this is added another trend to be observed with great attention: the huge spread of bikes and electric scooters in sharing. These micro-mobility solutions are becoming extremely successful, often at the expense of traditional public transport. That is why the companies that manage the TPL (local public transport) are called to study the best forms of integration with this type of solutions. Keep in mind that these are not simple fashions of the moment, but new habits of mobility, destined to be established all over the world!

The future of mobility is based on efficiency, flexibility and sustainability. In the coming years we will hear more and more about Maas (Mobility as a service) and Drt (Demand responsive transport). The right to mobility is set to become one of the cornerstones of sustainable development. That is why expect that the one offering mobility-related services will assume an increasingly central position in the ecosystem of smart cities (smart cities). In this context, it is likely that we will see the progressive marginalisation of traditional transport companies, which in the worst scenario could disappear altogether or be absorbed by technology companies. Another possible scenario is close cooperation and coordination between public and private entities. Through the creation of quality networks, based on data sharing, strategic objectives and resources (e.g. digital platforms), they would have the possibility to respond to the needs of the citizen in a synergistic and efficient way, with tailor-made offers! As you can see once again, the theme of digital platforms and data-centric logic is back in play!

The last (and certainly not the most important) trend is the unstoppable diffusion of systems based on artificial intelligence. This issue is very complex and brings with it a number of economic, political and social implications, that we are not going to talk about in this article. What we are interested in emphasizing is that thanks to this technology it is likely to expect that in the future many means of transport will operate with autonomous (driver-less) driving. Does it seem impossible to you? What if we told you that there are already autonomous buses?! If you want to dwell on Italy, just go to Merano or Turin to try them!

As you can see, the challenges to face are many and far from simple. In this context, it is easy to envisage a completely different future for mobility and in particular for public transport. Our hope is that the public and private actors involved in this sector, realize as soon as possible that it is an evolutionary process to which they cannot escape! Technological progress is unstoppable. The best thing to do is to study it, understand it and try to govern it, making sure it is always applied to change for the better! For our part, there is maximum availability for comparison with transport companies and local administrations, with whom we would be happy to share technologies, resources and know-how to help govern this change in an intelligent way! We honestly think that at this moment more than ever it is necessary to cooperate and join forces.

Do you agree with us?! Help us spread this message!